Normally the early polls will show candidates who wind up winning not the front runner. Such was the case for Democratic candidate Bill deBlasio who was running second or third in the early polls. As the campaign wore on second place poll choice Anthony Weiner dropped down and Bill deBlasio became the number two choice for Democrats. As primary day came closer there seemed to be a backlash against current Mayor Michael Bloomberg that at the time front runner Christine Quinn could not separate herself from, and Quinn wound up coming in third to deBlasio when the votes were counted. Bill Thompson ran a good race, but while at times he was almost even in the polls with deBlasio he could not pass deBlasio winding up second in a decisive election that did not need a run off to determine a winner.
Coming back to the November Mayors race, with the results of the first poll showing Joe Lhota trailing by 40%, the second poll now shows that Lhota is trailing by 50%. In breaking down the areas of voters the closest Lhota comes to deBlasio is with white voters where deBlasio leads by only 15%. The only area where Lhota leads is with Republican voters who are outnumbered now almost 8 to 1 by Democrats. Better than 75% of those polled said that they would not switch candidates either. One interesting breakdown is that under both deBlasio and Lhota those polled thought that taxes would rise the same under either candidate.
So why is Lhota so far behind? Lhota's comments are what gets him in trouble. Such as the kittens that were stranded on train tracks tying up service for hours in Queens, Lhota's comment was that he would have had the trains running "Cats or no Cats". Lhota is not liked on Republican strong hold Staten Island since he raised the fare on the Verrazano Narrows Bridge. Lhota also raised the subway fare and some say due to his mismanagement as head of the MTA. Lhota is also seen as a bully in this election with his rants of deBlasio's past, and lack of past leadership. DeBlasio on the other hand is coming off as the darling of the people trying to help improve what Mayor Bloomberg would or did not do.
Can Joe Lhota make up 50% in the upcoming four weeks, I don't think so. Look for this to be a Democratic landslide for mayor. Forget about Adolpho Carrion stealing votes from deBlasio as the margin will be twenty times or more than any votes Carrion will get.