New Poll by The New Roosevelt Initiative Shows Low Approval Rating for Espada

  OVERVIEW
The results of the New Roosevelt Initiative’s August Viability survey in Senate District 33 Democratic primary demonstrate that Senator Pedro Espada has clearly been damaged by the myriad scandals that surround him and he enters his re-election campaign in an extremely vulnerable position. As will be expanded upon in greater detail below, the three typical indicators for incumbent vulnerability – favorable v. unfavorable, job approval v. disapproval and re-elect v. replace – are all net negatives for Senator Espada.
Ironically, Espada is in this situation despite the fact that he has the highest overall name recognition of any elected official tested, even surpassing Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. 78% of the electorate knew and had an opinion of Espada, but more than half held an unfavorable rating of him and the vast majority of those held a strongly unfavorable rating. Two things to draw from this: First, when people know who Espada is, they usually have an unfavorable view of him, and second, unfortunately for Senator Espada, most people know who he is.

    METHODOLOGY:
The survey was conducted from August 3rd through August 5th, 2010. Using bilingual (English/Spanish) callers, 400 Democrats registered to vote in the 33rd Senatorial District (and likely to vote in the September Democratic Primary) were randomly sampled. Respondents were further narrowed following a screener in the questionnaire on vote likelihood. The poll sample was matched to the 2008 statistics on turnout based on gender, age, Assembly District, and race, in order to ensure that the results reflect the likely composition of the 2010 primary electorate. The margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 4.8% at the 95% confidence level, while margins of error are greater for subgroups from the sample.

   FAVORABLE-UNFAVORABLE RATINGS
Despite his high name recognition, Senator Espada was given a strongly favorable rating by only 18% of respondents (with an additional 20% holding a somewhat favorable view), while 30% held a strongly UNfavorable view (with an additional 11% somewhat unfavorable). The difference between the strongly-held favorable sentiments indicates an intensity of anger at the incumbent that is not matched by his supporters. In contrast, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has a 66% favorable rating and a 7% unfavorable rating. Cuomo’s popularity is likely to help validate the charges that he brought against the Senator in two civil actions earlier in the year, further contributing to the Senator’s poor performance in this survey.
Notable breakdowns of Senator Espada’s favorable-unfavorable ratings indicate that:

• Less than half of Latinos (48%) have a favorable view of the Senator, while almost a third (31%) of Latinos have an unfavorable view of Espada.
• Barely a quarter (27%) of black and white voters hold a favorable view of the Senator (with only 9% strongly favorable), and a solid 50% holding unfavorable views
• Espada’s faces negative sentiments all across the district, as his unfavorable ratings are merely equal to his favorable ratings in the southern part of the district, while in the northern part of the district he is faced with 60% of voters with an unfavorable opinion of him (compared to a only 22% with a favorable opinion)

JOB APPROVAL RATINGS
Regardless of voters’ personal sentiments about Pedro Espada, their assessment of how successful he is at his job as State Senator is even worse. Only 34% approve of the job Senator Espada has done, while 42% disapprove (and 32% strongly disapprove). The same regional and ethnic divides mentioned above apply to this measure as well, and a remarkable 33% of Latinas and 28% of Latino men disapprove of his job performance.

  

RE-ELECT/ REPLACE RATINGS
Generally considered the most accurate measure of an incumbent’s prospect for re-election, Senator Espada’s most sobering statistic is the level of voters expressing a desire to replace him rather than re-elect him. A mere 26% say he should be re-elected, while a solid 47% want to see him replaced. Across every age group, gender, level of voting history, geographic region, and even race, there is a larger sentiment for replacing Espada over re-electing him, including 39% of Latinos who want to replace him vs. only 35% of Latinos who would re-elect him.  

HYPOTHETICALMATCHUP:  VS. ESPADA

CONCLUSION Come September 14th, the voters of the 33rd Senate District have the opportunity to end an unfortunate two-year experience with a State Senator who has somehow managed to make Albany look even worse and who is under investigation by a half-dozen groups and individuals. This poll demonstrates the weaknesses of Senator Espada. If the election were held today, the race would theoretically be a toss-up, although historically undecided voters tend to break against well-known incumbents. A month from now, if the media focuses more on the candidates and the campaign engages in far more direct voter contact, Gustavo Rivera should be in a solid position to defeat this unpopular incumbent. To make this a reality, New Roosevelt Initiative needs to engage in an effort to introduce him more fully to the voters and needs to engage quickly. Yet, there are only five weeks left until the primary, and it is generally assumed that Pedro Espada will use any means available to him to fund his campaign and to deceive the voters of the 33rd Senate District. However, as this poll demonstrates, Espada is NOT as popular as he believes or as many outside observers may suggest, and the voters of this Senate District are have not been persuaded by his two years of self-promotion, nor are they particularly moved by his questionable claims of victimhood. This was taken from the New Roosevelt Initiative report from Red Horse Strategies of Brooklyn dated August 10th 2010. It must be noted that the New Roosevelt Initiative has endorsed J. Gustavo Rivera in the 33rd State Senate race.

Hector Ramirez Fundraiser Tonught

An invitation from Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.

Dear Friend,

I'm writing to invite you to a reception honoring Hector Ramirez, a candidate for the New York State Assembly, this Monday, August 16th.

As you know, I had the privilege of serving in the State Assembly until I was elected Bronx Borough President last year. I know the hard work and dedication it takes to be a successful legislator, and I know Hector will be a great and vibrant leader in Albany.

I don't have to tell you that Albany desperately needs new and energetic leadership. As a small business owner, Hector understands our community's economy. Hector believes New York can and must work harder to create local jobs with living wages, and I couldn't agree more.

Hector will be a force for bringing real affordable housing to the Bronx, and I need his partnership in Albany to do the best job I can as Borough President.

So won't you please join me in support of Hector's campaign? I am hosting a reception for Hector on Monday, August 16th, from 7-9 PM, at Ibiza Lounge, 220 West 242nd Street, and I'd love to greet you personally.

This election couldn't be more important for the future of our borough, our city and our state. I hope I can count on your support.

Sincerely,

Ruben Diaz Jr.

Bronx Borough President

You are cordially invited to join Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. in supporting Hon. Hector Ramirez for the New York State Assembly

Monday, August 16, 2010

7pm - 9pm

Ibiza Lounge

220 West 242nd Street, Bronx, New York

Sponsorship Levels:

Sponsor - $2,500 Host - $1,000 Patron - $500 Friend - $100

Please make checks payable to Friends of Ramirez

To RSVP or for more information call 718-731-2009

or email mjemrick@peoplefordiaz.com.

Political contributions are not tax deductible.

Individuals, PACs, LLCs and partnerships may contribute up to $7,600 per cycle ($3,800 for the primary election and $3,800 for the general election). Corporations may contribute up to a total of $5,000 aggregated political giving per year.

PS: Hector Ramirez candidacy has been supported by the Bronx Democratic County Committee, The Workings Family Party, Congressman Jose Serrano, Senator Ruben Díaz J, Assemblyman Marcos Crespo, Councilman Fernando Cabrera, Councilwoman Annabel Palma, and several Labor Unions. For more information visit www.hectorramirez

BRONX BOROUGH PRESIDENT RUBEN DIAZ JR CELEBRATES JAMAICAN INDEPENDENCE DAY

   Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. in conjunction with Jamaica Progressive League, Inc. will commemorate the 48^th Year of the Independence of Jamaica. The event will also celebrate the 123^rd birthday anniversary of Marcus M. Garvey, Jamaica’s First National Hero. 

   Residents will be able to enjoy music and traditional Jamaican cuisine.

  

WHEN:             Tuesday, August 17 

WHERE:            The Bronx County Building- 851 Grand Concourse- 1^ST Floor

TIME:                6:00 pm

It's Down to 5 Court Challenges

   It is down to five cases that Supreme Court Judge Robert Sewald will have to decide on. The challenge to the petition of J. Gustave Rivera by Pedro Espada looks like it should go the Rivera way as Judge Sewald heard verbal arguments from each lawyer. A press release from the Rivera campaign says that an official report from a Bronx County Supreme Court-appointed referee today decreed that Gustavo Rivera's campaign collected well over the required number of signatures to qualify for this September's Primary Election and rejected a frivolous challenge made by Pedro Espada's campaign, dealing the embattled Senator yet another blow. 

   "Instead of fighting for our community, Pedro Espada tried to intimidate his own constituents and take away our right to vote for change," said Gustavo Rivera. "But the Bronx is still a democracy and our community will have a chance to elect new leadership on September 14th. Judge Sewald will give his final ruling on Friday afternoon, which should be appealed by either side to the State Appellate Court on Monday.

  Stanley Schleim, the king of election lawyers is involved in the other four challenges left. In the 32nd State Senate race Charlie Ramos will be on the ballot to face incumbent State Senator Ruben Diaz Sr. In the 28th State Senate race incumbent State Senator Serrano will not face a primary challenge. In the 82nd A.D. it looks like the petition of Egidio Sementilli will fall short by one signature this year in his attempt for candidacy.

   Judge Sewald heard arguments from both sides in the attempt to invalidate the petition of incumbent 86th A.D. Assemblyman Nelson Castro, as the referee's report had gone in Assemblyman Castro's favor. Stanley Schlein was very entertaining in his argument to invalidate Assemblyman Castro's petition, as even Judge Sewald was seen smiling at times. Judge Sewald will give his verdicts on all five cases tomorrow. It is expected that the judge will go with his appointed special referee's decisions as I was told by Mr. Schlein, but he added that the judge does not always rule that way. Mr. Schlein is looking for that exception in the Nelson Castro case.

  

Senator Reverend Ruben Diaz to Gerson Borrero: Please Get Help.

   New York State Senator Reverend Ruben Diaz issued the following statement about El Diario la Prensa journalist, Gerson Borrero: 

   "Friends and constituents have approached me today to ask if Gerson Borrero suffers from delirium tremors or just extreme psychosis?
These remarks have come on the heels of last night's performance by Gerson Borrero on NY1's Road to City Hall when he and Curtis Sliwa discussed my unification rally in Staten Island.
Apparently Gerson Borrero's outburst is causing great concern in our community.
At first I brushed off his diatribe against me as being shameful and ridiculous. Then, after thinking about it a little more, I also became concerned.
He clearly could not control himself during last night's interview as he raged and ranted and accused me of being Lucifer.  This is not the first time that Gerson Borrero has one of these outbursts on television.  I recall an interview he gave with Andrew Kirtzman on NY1 when Gerson Borrero was cursing and got up while the camera were rolling and walked off the set. It seems that  he gets fired from every job he gets - including jobs with Radio WADO and with Angelo Falcon's Puerto Rican Public Policy.  Gerson Borrero gets fired because he cannot control himself, and I have to agree that his hostility and unprofessional behavior border on being dangerous.
While his outbursts against me did offend me personally, I need for Gerson Borrero to know that I do forgive him and that I join the ranks of those New Yorkers who urge him to seek professional help immediately."

Ed. note.  You can go to  ny1.com to see the political rundown in question.

Senators Sampson and Díaz Announce Historic Funding For Senior Center Infrastructure Repair

   Senate Majority Conference Leader John L. Sampson (19th SD) and Senator Rubén Díaz (32nd SD), Chairman of the New York State Senate Committee on Aging, today announced that twenty-five (25) Senior Centers throughout New York State would receive $545,000 in funding for capital improvements.

   Senator Díaz said, “As Chairman of the New York State Senate Committee on Aging, I am deeply grateful to Senate Majority Conference Leader John Sampson for his support in making these funds available.  Senior centers provide many important services for older New Yorkers including meals, social programs and educational opportunities. These services keep seniors active, independent and living in their own homes.”

   “The senior population in New York is steadily growing and it is our responsibility to do everything within our power to ensure they age with dignity, and with the security afforded by adequate senior centers. We must always strive to protect our most vulnerable and deliver the vital services they need to enjoy the safe, healthy and happy lifestyle they deserve. I applaud my colleague, Senator Rubén Díaz for his strong advocacy on behalf of seniors across our state," said Senate Majority Conference Leader John L. Sampson.

   The funding for these capital projects will be distributed in two phases. The $545,000 announced today is the first phase of the project and award letters notifying the recipients have been mailed by the New York State Office for the Aging. The second phase will be announced in the near future.  Requests from the centers were received in response to a letter Senator Díaz mailed to 600 senior centers across New York State soon after he became Chairman of the Aging Committee in 2009.

Supreme Court Rulings -Thursday 2PM

   With so many court challenges to candidates petitions the referees decisions were finished today, with Judge Sewald scheduled to rule Thursday afternoon.

   Almost all hearings have been settled and almost all Board of Election decisions have been kept in place. The few challenges that have not been solved between the candidates will be decided by Judge Sewald Thursday.

   One case still up in the air is that of the challenge to the petition of J. Gustavo Rivera, which will be decided Thursday. Word from both camps is that the decision will go their way.  Meanwhile Mr. Rivera picked up key union support yesterday as SEIU 1199 and 32BJ endorsed his candidacy.

   The challenge to the petition of Dan Padernacht was dropped, meaning that Mr. Padernacht will be on the ballot in the 33rd State Senate race Democratic Primary, awaiting the outcome of the court decision to see if it will still be a three-way race.

Senator Klein Unveils New Data Showing Dozens of Registered Sex Offenders Still Illegally Living in NYC Public Housing

   State Senator and Deputy Majority Leader Jeffrey D. Klein (D-Bronx/Westchester) will join Assemblymembers Michael Benjamin (D-Bronx) and Michael Benedetto (D-Bronx), tenant leaders and community members to unveil data showing that there are more sex offenders illegally living in public housing units in New York City now than earlier this year. Governor Paterson recently signed into law Klein’s legislation to require the NYS Department of Criminal Justice Services to provide municipal housing authorities with a list each month of all registered sex offenders whose address is within the authority's city or municipality. This legislation is scheduled to take effect on September 28^th of this year.

   WHO: State Senator Jeff Klein; Assemblyman Michael Benjamin; Assemblyman Michael Benedetto; Dwayne Jenkins, President of the Throggs Neck Houses Residents Council; local elected officials and community members.

   WHAT: Klein Releases Data Showing Sex Offenders Still Illegally Living in Public Housing, Announces Passage of New Law

   WHEN: Tuesday, August 10^th AT 1:00PM

   WHERE: Throggs Neck Houses – Randall Avenue and the Cross Bronx Expressway, Bronx