Bronx Murder Rate Hits 2019 Total Number in October of 2020 - Is Crime Still Going Down as Mayor de Blasio Would Have You Think?

 The number of murders in the Bronx for 2019 totaled 84. In the CompStat Report Covering the week of 10/5/2020 through 10/11/2020 the number of murders in the Bronx was 84, thus equaling the 2019 number with more than 11 weeks of CompStat reporting to go. At that rate there should be 17 more Bronx murders in 2020 which would bring the total murders in 2020 over 100. According to the CompStat reports the Bronx murder rate in 1998 was 166 murders. 

Shooting incidents and victims in 2020 are closing in on double the number of 2019. We don't have a figure what they were in 1998, because those numbers are not listed in the CompStat report

If we look at another category, in 2020 (again, with 11 weeks to go) the GLA (Grand Theft Auto aka cars stolen) number is 1491 whereas for the entire year 2019 the GLA number was 924. At that rate the number of GLA's in the Bronx should come close to 1,700. The number of GLA's in 1998 was 7,169. 

Why has the number of GLA's decreased so much over the past 22 years, that is because car makers have made it harder to steal cars by adding anti theft devices. One can no longer just take a screw driver and start a car like they did in 1998. I once had a discussion with then Chief of Strategic Policing Shea (now Commissioner Shea) telling him that if the GLA figures from 1990 and on were taken out of the CompStat report there would be little decrease in crime since the dropping GLA numbers were an indication of the largest drop in crime. He said that the department worked hard with anti theft units to decrease the GLA figures.

I asked Commissioner Shea this year how much crime goes unreported, and his answer was that there is no way to gauge how much crime goes unreported, but that much crime goes unreported, not going into any specific areas. If you do not report even the smallest crime to the police department, do not ask why there are no police officers on patrol, because the number of police officer is determined by the number of crimes in a precinct. You do not have to wait for a patrol car to come, as you can always go to your local precinct to report a crime, just make sure you have all the details.

Reference - Police Department City of New York

CompStat Bronx Report Covering the Week 10/5/2020 Through 10/11/2020