The biggest race is that of President of the United States. Four years ago I was the only Bronx political reporter to openly call the race for Donald Trump. During the past four years Donald Trump was cruising to an easy victory, that is until the Corona Virus started in China. That virus made its way across Asia into Europe, and finally to the United States. Now every Democrat who blamed Trump from anything to everything blames him for the Corona Virus.
Only four incumbent presidents in post 1900 United States history who served a full four year term were not reelected to a second term. They were William Taft 1909 - 1913, Herbert Hoover 1929 - 1933, Jimmy Carter 1977 - 1981, and George Bush Sr. 1989 - 1993. Only four Vice Presidents have been elected President, George Bush Sr. in 1988, Martin Van Buren in 1856, Thomas Jefferson in 1800, and John Adams in 1796.
While certain people admonish Trump for his friendships with certain foreign countries he is the only president since Jimmy Carter not to have participated in a war with another country. The national economy has continued to grow even with the pandemic, and Trump is the first U.S. President to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
As I did four years ago I predict that Donald Trump will be elected, this time to a second term as president of the United States. As was the case four years ago the race is too close to call, and may not be fully determined until sometime in December. Four years ago Donald Trump won one election district in the 80th A.D. This year Donald Trump should win seven election districts in the 80th and 82nd assembly districts combined.
On the local Bronx side two elections will have surprising results. In the 14th Congressional race in 2018 current Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won a surprising victory over the long time incumbent, and she is now the incumbent. When all the votes are counted I expect AOC to be the winner, but her opponent John Cummings will have come closer than many expect him to, at least in the Bronx. It is the Queens part of the district that will provide the safe margin of victory for the incumbent congresswoman. AOC's primary opponent who is running on a minor third party line should be of no significance in the race.
The race to watch is the 80th Assembly race where in 2012 now Councilman Mark Gjonaj received more votes than all three of the other candidates including the incumbent (at that time) assemblywoman. Gjonaj then won election to the city council in 2017, and in April of 2018 a special election was held that handed the assembly seat to Gjonaj's then Chief of Staff with a total vote count which was less then the number of votes Gjonaj alone received in 2012. Said assembly member did not have a primary in 2018 or in 2020, and announced her decision to run for Bronx Borough President next year months before her November election which has angered many people that she is taking the people of the 80th A.D. for granted, while she campaigns for Bronx BP. Her leading an anti police march through the district right past the park where hundreds of people showed to support the police has angered others in the 80th A.D.
The writer Robert Press has an excellent record of calling close political races either exactly or within the margin of error.