I always try to wait as long as I can before I make election predictions, and this year I have waited until the last minute because of several things that have happened for this primary. The past two incumbent governors resigned, and the last Lieutenant Governor David Patterson to move up to governor, did not even run for a full term. Kathy Hochul selected State Senator Brian Benjamin who began as Lieutenant Governor on September 9, 2021, and who resigned on April 12, 2022, after pressure from those in his own party. They then changed the Election Law to allow an indicted Brian Benjamin (who claimed innocence) to resign. Even Governor Kathy Hochul had declared her choice of Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin guilty, because he had become a liability in the upcoming June Primary. She then chose another choice for Lieutenant Governor who has not been in office one month when early voting began, having started on May 25, 2022.
Now for my predictions. I will start on the Republican side since there is only one primary for Republican voters in the Bronx. With very light early voter turnout, the Republican Primary for governor appears to be between the two most popular candidates former Congressman Lee Zeldin and Andrew Giuliani. It depend who goes to the polls, but Republicans tend to be more conservative, so I will call the Republican candidate for governor to be Andrew Giuliani. Had Rob Astorino been smart he would of run for either Lieutenant Governor or for the redistricted 16th Congressional seat against Jamaal Bowman. To close to call the percentages.
On the Democratic side for Governor there should be no reason why Kathy Hochul can't get elected with all the federal COVID monies she has handed out statewide, and her campaign war chest which is much larger than her two opponents together. Down the stretch Jumaane Williams has a new baby and family problems to deal with limiting his time to campaign. Tom Suozzi has not become a household name in New York City where more than half of the states votes come from. Hochul should win the Democratic Primary, but how much over 50% will she receive.
For Lieutenant Governor Ana Maria Archila seemed to be pulling into the lead, and with an endorsement by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocassio-Cortez victory seems assured over former city councilwoman Diana Reyna, and still wet behind the ears place holder Antonio Delgado. Archila should with at least 55% of the vote.
Now on to the five Bronx Assembly which I shall do in reverse order 86th, 84th, 82nd, 81st, leaving the hot 78th A.D. for last. I begin with the 86th A.D. with incumbent Yudelka Tapia vs. challenger Pool Stewart. Tapia should win with at least 68% of the vote.
The 84th A.D. has incumbent Amanda Septimo facing two challengers Hector Feliciano and Alberto Torres. In a district where few people vote the incumbent has the advantage especially when there are two challengers. Lets see how much over 50% Septimo can get.
In the 82nd A.D. incumbent Michael Benedetto has given out over one million dollars to three different community groups all over the district this past week. While he faces Al Quatlebaum from Coop-City, and Throggs Neck AOC backed Johnathan Soto, I agree with Assemblyman Benedetto when he said my two opponents have no resume. Benedetto should win, and the question is who will come in second, and who will come in third.
In the 81st A.D. incumbent Assemblyman Jeffrey Dinowitz is probably facing his toughest race since he was elected to the assembly in a special election in February of 1994. In 2020 Dinowitz won a 61% - 39% victory over George Diaz who was thrown off the ballot this year. Dinowitz's opponent this year is Jessica Altagracia Wooolford who lives in Riverdale less than two blocks away from Dinowitz, and who also has the backing of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocassio-Cortez. This will be Dinowitz's toughest race since becoming an assemblyman. I am going to go out on a limb, and call this race for the new 81st Assembly member Jessica Altagracia Woolford 55% - 45% over the incumbent Jeffrey Dinowitz.
In the last Bronx assembly race the 78th A.D. a weak incumbent Jose Rivera faces two tough challenger who could each easily win one on one with the incumbent assemblyman. Candidate Emmanuel Martinez has had over $400,000.00 dollars pumped into his campaign to get his name out, while candidate George Alvarez has the endorsements of Members of Congress Ritchie Torres and Adriano Espalliat, along with City Council members Pierina Sanchez and Oswald Feliz. It looks like Jose Rivera is in trouble this year, but every time I mark him as the loser he winds up winning. I have to go with Jose Rivera this year winning by the slimmest of all margins he has ever had.
We shall see how I have done on election night, but if any race is close as I predict it could take weeks to count all the absentee ballots.
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