Everyone is waiting for my predictions in the 11th and 15th special elections where there are six candidates running in the 11th City Council District, and ten official and one write in candidate in the 15th City Council District.
This will be the first time for many to vote in a Rank Choice Election. The last time Rank Choice Voting was used in New York City was in 1999 (twenty-two years ago) in the last School Board Election. Rank Choice voting was disbanded when School Boards were abolished by the state legislature in 2002 when Mayoral Control of the public schools was given to then Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
The school board Rank Choice Voting was for nine seats on a school board, and not just one seat as this Special Election is for. Previous special elections were not Rank Choice Voting so position on the ballot didn't matter, because people were just making one choice, and there were only a few candidates running. It was found out in School Board Rank Choice Voting that the candidate who was on the top of the ballot had an advantage because voters sometimes were voting 1 - 9 from the top down. This was amplified because in school board elections the listing of candidates was rotated so all candidates would have an equal number of election districts they were on the top of the ballot.
Since it was found out in School Board Rank Choice Voting elections the candidate on top would get votes just for being on the top of the ballot, thus in the 2021 Rank Choice Voting there will be voters who rank their choices 1 - 5 from the top down. Since the candidates in both districts will be on the top of the ballot in every election district they have a distinct advantage and will get votes for being on the top of the ballot.
With the 11th district having 124 election districts, and the 15th having 108 election districts the candidates on the top of the ballot can expect one to two hundred or more number one votes just for being on the top of the ballot.
Therefore since the two candidates are in the top tier of voter support with the additional votes for being on the top of the ballot the candidates I think will win the special election are, in the 11th council district Eric Dinowitz, and in the 15th council district John Sanchez. as for who comes in second, third, fourth or even tenth in the 15th council district, it does not matter because there is only one seat and only one winner. It is quite possible that one or both may win outright.