Tuesday, June 1, 2021

215 Days and Counting Updated to include Dr. Varma's comments

 


Let me sip on this cup of coffee while I tell you what my experts on COVID-19 think they know about the virus. Today my experts tell me that if you had COVID-19 your immunity may be as good as getting vaccinated. Although even if you are vaccinated or immune and get a symptom of the virus you should be tested for the virus.  

We are at the lowest infection rate, and we want to get rid of this virus just like what happened in 1918, even though back then they had no vaccines and got over that pandemic which ended in 1919.  

Update to include Dr. Varma's comments

Mayor: Dr. Varma, you want to speak about what COVID looks like in the future?  

Senior Advisor Varma: Yeah, no, of course. I'll start with the most important caveat, which is that you know, this is a virus that continues to surprise us and do things that we may not have thought were high likelihood. So, with that important caveat in mind, I think there's some important uncertainties that play into the different scenarios. The first uncertainty is will immunity from vaccination continue to be as strong as it is a year or two years out. So, if that immunity, you know, is weaker in some way, like it is for some vaccines, that you need boosters, that may change the dynamics. The second is we know that some people have declined or delayed vaccination right now because they were infected at some point. We also don't know how long and how broadly protective their immunity will be. And the third is we don't know for sure what the virus’ evolution will be. We've seen variants emerge that are more transmissible, that provide a little bit of escape possibly from the vaccines, but overall, we've seen how effective the vaccines are protecting against them. So, if you look at all those three things together, the most likely scenario, at least for this coming fall, is that, as you mentioned, there will be sort of localized clusters. I mean, any place where people share indoor air and large numbers of unvaccinated people are present.    

   

So, it's going to be very important that we continue to message to people that if you don't have symptoms, you should continue to get tested regularly for COVID, and we, as a city, are going to continue to provide those testing services for people so that you can continue to get tested and screened. The second is that if you have symptoms, even if you've been vaccinated, it's going to be important to get tested for COVID just as you might get tested for the flu or other things, and the sooner that we have that information, the more rapidly going to be able to respond. And then the next point is I think our response to these epidemics is going to be, to really try to push hard on vaccination in certain neighborhoods. You know, we have a template for that. We've had measles outbreaks in selected communities, you know, over the past 10 years, and our response to that is a very comprehensive one that tries to identify people, separate those who are potentially infected or infectious to others, and then vaccinate as many people at risk along with very intensive community engagement. So, I do think that we're going to be able to follow a template that we have used for many other diseases, but of course are open to things changing as we learn more about the virus and immunity.    


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